Posted by: nativeiowan | November 13, 2016

2016 v11.Voter Remorse

OK, it is sunday. Its is a quiet Sunday. I love

Grace and the kids will soon be heading off to church. I will watch UFC 205 in a few hours.

18 month old Ed sings and giggles in the background. She is a pretty relaxed baby, requiring heaps of attention and with a dare-devil attitude. One of her favourite words is “JUMP”. Her big bro, Mendoza, is a big strong healthy 11 yr old. He is adept at heights and defying gravity. Ed thinks she can do the same… caught her going up the ladder the other day. As I hooted n rushed to “save” her, she climbed faster.2016-11-11-15-29-31

But kids are good. Gracie commented just the other day that she feels stronger/ healthier after chasing Ed for a couple of weeks.

I like the smiles and giggles and mischievousness of a toddler… that can get into a lot of trouble, easily… and they move do damn fast… 2016-11-12-17-29-17-2

2016-11-12-17-27-23

Woke to a phone call from my mad-wild buddy, Dr. Filardi. He regaled me in a tale of dragging a big, male Elk out of the Montana mountains. The entire drama involved in going-solo, high into the mountains, then coming out a couple of days later with 800 pounds of meat at the end of a rope… well, hell… that is just bitch’n. Always grand to hear from the Big Dok… we are scheming on a fishing trip… sometime… sometime…

SO… my topic for this Sunday is “Voter Remorse”. Only 4 short days past, the US electorate chose Donald Trump to lead the US for the next 4 years, AND, they gave him a fully cooperative House and Senate.

This means that the Republicans/ Conservatives are in control. The balance of power is in their hands.

One path of discussion would be “what does this mean” for the future? What about the past 8 years of predominantly Democrats/ Liberals agenda? What about ObamaCare? What about the Iran deal? What about WW4? So many possible paths for our discussion to take…

But rather than take this path, now, I want to look at what just transpired… what happened within the Electorate to give us this result? Why did we see a Conservative swing of the pendulum, after suck a long and wide shift toward the Liberal?

To do so lets see what happened on Election Day… base info coming from: http://www.statisticbrain.com/voting-statistics/

Total number of votes cast last Tuesday = 126,622,225 for 55.6% of the eligible vote. Backwards-math tells us the total number of eligible votes = 227,025,584. So 100,403,359 voters simply did a no-show…

2016 Presidential Election Voter Statistics Data
Data accurate as of 11.10.16 (10:00 pm PST)
Total number of early ballots cast 47,000,000
Total number of votes cast in the Hillary vs. Trump election 126,622,225
Voter turnout rate 55.6 %

Who are the hundred-million people who did not cast a ballot? I am one. I know a few other “disgruntled”  voters, like me. My argument is simply that I cannot support the Parties and Individuals as they are presented. I have never been able to find a candidate I felt was worthy of my ballot.

I know there are others who simply do not get involved. To say they don’t care is a bit presumptuous. But it is factual that they do not vote.

It is also factual that a % of the Disgruntled identify as either Conservative or Liberal or Independent. It will though take a bit of research to try to dissect this 44.4%, and why they chose not to vote this year. Why they were not inspired. But historically we see the average turn out about 50% so nothing really new in the level of Disgruntled-ness in the Electorate.

It is though quickly evident that any Party or Individual that can inspire and mobilise this huge body of the Electorate would handily win each and every election.

Here are the run-out numbers…

2016 Presidential Election Results Data
Number of electoral votes for Donald Trump / Michael Pence 279
Number of electoral votes for Hillary Clinton / Tim Kaine 228
Total votes for Donald Trump (R) 60,034,250
Total votes for Hillary Clinton (D) 60,319,493
Gary Johnson (L) 4,099,040
Dr Jill Stein (G) 1,224,066
Evan McMullin (I) 461,524
Write-ins 420,334
Other 344,217

This brings the general numeric count into perspective… We see that the popular vote went for Hillary but not the Electoral vote. I have discussed the Electoral Vote in previous posts… https://nativeiowan.wordpress.com/2012/12/18/the-us-of-as-electoral-system-for-dumbassesv1-0/

I know there is a lot of discussion about getting rid of the Elector College. It is a topical and timely discussion… BUT… in my opinion the system was initiated to allow representation of the less populated demographic… MEANING THIS… The top ten, most populated states could easily end up controlling the popular vote, year after year, election after election. The East-Coast, the West-Coast could dominate, even dictate, to the “rural” demographic. Thus the Electoral Vote System.

But that is indeed a long and tangential discussion I shall not go into here…

So, in 2016…

More college graduates voted for the Liberal ticket, as did more Blacks, Hispanic, Asian, Women and Youthful voters, and the Liberal Ticket took 7% of the Registered Republican vote.

The Conservative ticket attracted the majority of those without a college education, Males, Voters aged over 30, and took 9% of the Registered Democratic vote.

I find it interesting that the Independent Vote predominately went to Trump.

2016 Voter Demographic Results Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
College Graduates 43 % 52 %
No college degree 52 % 44 %
Male 53 % 41 %
Female 42 % 54 %
Age 18 – 29 37 % 55 %
Age 30 – 44 50 % 42 %
Age 45-64 53 % 44 %
65 + 52 % 45 %
White 58 % 37 %
Black 8 % 88 %
Hispanic 29 % 65 %
Asian 29 % 65 %
Registered Democrat 9 % 89 %
Registered Republican 90 % 7 %
Registered Independent 48 % 42 %

I see the important numbers being in the College Graduate V No Degree demographic… The Conservative/ Liberal split almost mirrored right/ left… 52% College Grads for Hillary and 52%nonGrads for Trump.

Not enough to really claim that it was the uneducated white male who made the difference, but enough to add to the weight of the other demographics…

The Age Groupings are important… The 18 – 29 age group should really have gone heavier on the Liberal side. That Trump got 37% of the Youthful demographic is a bit surprising to me -noting- that I think some of this demographic was lost to the Democrats/ Liberals due to the Bernie issue. I wonder if Bernie would have taken this demographic by a huge %. I think he would have.

The 30+ age group is interesting… about 15% of this demographic either voted Libertarian, Independent, or Other. Makes sense but again, definitely a sign that the Liberal Ticket failed to attract a  fair number of traditionally liberal voters.

The Ethnic split is quite amazing… Considering that Trump has made so much noise about immigration, and has sounded rather fascist, 29% of the Hispanic and Asian Electorate is HUGE. Not sure how to explain it… I guess the Liberal lines did not work… again, any more…

Along these lines… The fact that 9% of Registered Democrats chose to vote for Trump is important. As well, the fact that 2% of Democrats did not vote right or left appear to be votes lost to the Liberal side. A total of 97% of the Republican vote went right/ left with 3% going elsewhere. All up these two items represent a full 5% of party affiliated voters going “elsewhere”… either writing in or going Libertarian or Independent. 5% is huge.

So, there you go… Numbers are numbers are numbers… The reality is that we are in for an interesting ride, with Prez Trump at the wheel…

More later

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